Understanding the Threat to Democracy Index

In the days after the second inauguration of Donald Trump, many of us were overwhelmed with uncertainty about what his presidency would mean for our work. Policy advocates, public interest lawyers, nonprofit leaders, and concerned residents all felt paralyzed by the inability to predict what was coming. Trump and the MAGA movement had already demonstrated unmistakable similarities to fascist movements of the past. His actions after losing the 2020 presidential election made clear that his opposition to free and fair elections was more than just rhetoric. In the first week of his second term, he issued a dizzying number of executive actions—many of which were unconstitutional on their face. Believing that Trump’s second term would simply repeat his first felt impossibly naïve. Believing that the United States had suddenly become a dictatorship felt impossibly exaggerated. In that context, how could rational decisions be made?

To bring clarity to that uncertainty, the Peace and Justice Law Center (PJLC) created the Threat to Democracy Index—an objective, data-informed tool designed to help people understand the trajectory of political developments in the United States. The index is a weekly composite score that tracks the country’s progression through five possible stages of democratic decline. It evaluates how far the MAGA movement has moved toward consolidating authoritarian or fascist control, if that is the movement's goal.

Each week, the index is scored by PJLC staff with expertise in constitutional law, using structured rubrics aligned with the five stages of democratic decline. To ensure transparency and accountability, we publish detailed written analyses for each of the nine measures. These weekly reports explain how events were interpreted, why specific scores were assigned, and what developments were considered.

The foundation of the index is the five stages of democratic decline, adapted from Robert Paxton’s five stages of fascism. We then reviewed historical research on fascism and authoritarianism to identify nine core dynamics to monitor. For each, we created a rubric with scores from 1 to 10, where 1–2 aligns with the first stage of democratic decline and 9–10 aligns with the fifth stage of democratic decline. Each week, we review new developments, apply the rubrics, and update the scores. The final index score is the mean average of the nine individual measures.

The index is designed to support legal professionals, nonprofit leaders, policy advocates, and civic-minded residents navigate rapidly shifting political conditions. A steady index score might indicate that organizations should continue current work and prepare for future risks. A rapidly rising score may warrant pivoting strategies, pausing lower-priority projects, or mobilizing resources to protect democratic institutions. Reaching Stage 4 or seeing 7s or 8s across several measures may call for serious contingency planning—including, in some cases, relocating out of the country.

We hope the Threat to Democracy Index serves both as a warning system and a source of clarity and agency. By offering a transparent and regularly updated view of where we are—and where we may be headed—we aim to help individuals and organizations make informed decisions rooted in a deeper understanding of political risk. Our democracy may be in crisis, but we are not powerless. In moments like this, good decisions depend on good information.