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Understanding the Threat to Democracy Index
In the days after the second inauguration of Donald Trump, many of us were overwhelmed with uncertainty about what his presidency would...
PJLC
May 6, 20252 min read


Monthly Update: 1/5/2026
Earlier this weekend, it appeared that the U.S. attack on Venezuela might warrant an increase in the Threat Index’s Militarism and Foreign Aggression score. With the benefit of a couple additional days, however, we have decided not to change the Index at this time. Following the U.S. bombing of Iran in June, we raised the Militarism score from 5 to 6. That change reflected a shift by the Trump administration from relying primarily on threats of military action to actually us
PJLC
Jan 52 min read


Monthly Update: 11/18/2025
As of this month, the Threat Index score remains the same. We continue to see worrying actions from the Trump administration and the broader MAGA movement, but the overall picture has not shifted. An authoritarian movement controls the federal government, but democratic institutions and political opposition continue. Courts, state governments, civil society, and organized opposition continue to push back. The movement’s attempts to dismantle the opposition seem designed to te
PJLC
Nov 18, 20252 min read


Monthly Update: 10/13/2025
Over the past month, following Charlie Kirk’s assassination, the MAGA movement has become increasingly explicit about its desire to eliminate political opposition. They describe larger and larger swaths of political opponents, including “democrats” and the hundreds of thousands or millions of people expected to participate in the upcoming No Kings protests, as “domestic terrorists” who "hate America.” Criminal prosecutions have begun against individuals on the president’s per
PJLC
Oct 13, 20252 min read


Monthly Update: 9/11/2025
Hello everyone, As you may have noticed, we have shifted from weekly to monthly updates for the Threat Index. We will publish more often...
PJLC
Sep 11, 20253 min read


Weekly Update: 7/29/2025
Gerrymandering has been in the news this week, raising an important issue for understanding democratic decline. Consider the simplest...
PJLC
Jul 29, 20254 min read


Weekly Update: 7/22/2025
This week, the Threat to Democracy Index remains unchanged. There were no major events reported over the past week that would move the...
PJLC
Jul 22, 20251 min read


Recommended Reading: Sherrilyn’s Newsletter
https://sherrilyn.substack.com/ Sherrilyn Ifill is a civil rights lawyer, former president of the NAACP Legal Defense Fund, and now a law...
Sean Garcia-Leys
Jul 15, 20251 min read


Weekly Update: 7/15/2025
The Threat Index score remains at 56 for the fourth week in a row. It was last raised on June 26, following Trump’s rejection of his...
PJLC
Jul 15, 20253 min read


Weekly Update: 7/8/2025
Among the most significant events of the past week was the enactment of the national budget reconciliation package, dubbed the One Big...
PJLC
Jul 8, 20251 min read


Weekly Update: 7/1/2025
The Supreme Court completed its term last week, so we thought we'd use this week's update as an opportunity to consider the message being...
PJLC
Jul 1, 20254 min read


Militarism and Foreign Aggression Rubric Revised
We are making targeted adjustments to the Militarism and Foreign Aggression rubric to improve clarity and consistency. Scoring Trump and...
PJLC
Jun 24, 20253 min read


Weekly Update: 6/24/2025
Following airstrikes on Iran, the Threat to Democracy Index score has been raised for the first time in three months. The Militarism and...
PJLC
Jun 24, 20252 min read


Weekly Update: 6/17/2025
This has been a busy week, but the Threat to Democracy Index score remains unchanged. Democratic institutions and civic movements remain...
PJLC
Jun 17, 20254 min read


Weekly Update: 6/10/2025
This week, the Threat to Democracy Index remains unchanged. However, it is unquestionable that the suppression of dissent in the United...
PJLC
Jun 10, 20253 min read


Weekly Update: 6/3/2025
Despite another week of headlines about power consolidating under Trump, the Threat to Democracy Index remains unchanged. That might lead...
PJLC
Jun 3, 20251 min read


Weekly Update: 5/27/2025
Index Status: Unchanged Despite another week marked by significant developments, the Threat to Democracy Index score remains unchanged....
PJLC
May 27, 20252 min read


Weekly Update: 5/20/2025
Index Status: Unchanged This week’s developments reinforce long-standing concerns about democratic decline but do not warrant a change in...
PJLC
May 20, 20252 min read


Weekly Update: 5/13/2025
The Threat to Democracy Index remains steady this week, unchanged since March 18. Like the previous several weeks, democratic backsliding...
PJLC
May 13, 20253 min read


Weekly Update: 5/6/2025
The Threat to Democracy Index remains steady this week, unchanged since March 18. Like the previous several weeks, democratic backsliding...
PJLC
May 6, 20252 min read
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