Weekly Update: 5/27/2025

Index Status: Unchanged

Despite another week marked by significant developments, the Threat to Democracy Index score remains unchanged. The Trump administration's recent actions highlight continuing threats to democratic norms through the weakening of judicial enforcement, the politically motivated defunding of academic and public broadcasting institutions, preparations for mass deportations, and the politicization of prosecutions and pardons. While these developments have not yet changed the index score, they reflect the erosion of institutional safeguards against further democratic decline.

This week, attention remained focused on the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which passed the House of Representatives and is now under consideration in the Senate. As in the House, some Republican senators are challenging Trump and demanding amendments, but there is little doubt that enough senators will eventually support the bill for it to pass.

While parts of the bill align with typical budget legislation, such as extending tax cuts, increasing the child tax credit, and adjusting standard deductions, other provisions represent major policy shifts that go well beyond fiscal matters. One provision limits federal courts’ ability to enforce contempt citations against government officials unless plaintiffs post a bond, raising serious concerns about judicial authority. Another imposes a 10-year moratorium on state and local regulation of artificial intelligence, including measures aimed at protecting election integrity. The bill also empowers the Treasury Department to revoke the tax-exempt status of nonprofits it deems to support terrorism, a provision critics warn could be used to target organizations that support Palestine or oppose deportations of alleged "gang members" without due process.

Some headlines claim the bond requirement will gut the judiciary’s ability to check Trump, but the actual effect may be more uneven. Some judges may set nominal bonds as low as $1, while others could demand prohibitive amounts, encouraging forum shopping and legal inconsistency. Still, it is certain that, when combined with proposals to restrict nationwide injunctions, the result will be that it is more difficult for public interest lawyers to use the courts to restrain unconstitutional government action. And as UC Berkeley Law Dean Erwin Chemerinsky points out, the most serious concern might be that the bond requirement applies retroactively, potentially invalidating hundreds of existing injunctions or creating chaos around their enforcement.

In addition to these policy changes, the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" codifies several of Trump’s executive orders, shielding them from legal challenges tied to the limits of executive power. These include Executive Order 14173, which rescinds DEIA requirements for federal contractors and consolidates anti-discrimination authority within the Department of Labor; Executive Order 14290, which defunds public broadcasters like NPR and PBS based on claims of media bias; and Executive Order 14185, which allows the Department of Education to withhold funds from universities accused of discriminatory admissions practices. The bill also codifies Executive Order 14188, which prohibits state and local AI regulation in election contexts for a decade. By embedding these directives into statute, the bill makes them more durable, insulating them from procedural challenges and reducing the likelihood that future administrations can reverse them through executive action. On the other hand, passing these through legislation does make their enactment more democratic and less authoritarian, even if it is done retroactively.