Weekly Update: 6/24/2025

Following airstrikes on Iran, the Threat to Democracy Index score has been raised for the first time in three months. The Militarism and Foreign Aggression score has increased from 5 to 6, raising the overall Threat Index score from 54 to 56.

President Trump’s airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities were publicly framed by his administration as a limited, surgical operation that intentionally avoided civilian casualties, endangered no American pilots, and ostensibly aimed to bring Iran back to the negotiating table. Officials emphasized that the United States is not at war with Iran and that the administration remains committed to diplomacy. However, the strikes mark a clear reversal from Trump's previous isolationism.

Until now, Trump’s militarism score remained at 5, reflecting aggressive rhetoric, disdain for multilateralism, and frequent military threats, but always tempered by his isolationist tendencies, his arguments that foreign entanglements were not in America’s interest, and his consistent failure to act on his threats.

This week changes that. The strike on Iranian soil was unilateral, preemptive, and launched without congressional authorization or broad international backing. This dismissal of diplomacy may be temporary, but Trump has now acted on his frequent threats that military force is a necessary step on the path to peace.

To be clear, presidential use of force without explicit congressional approval is hardly new. For decades, U.S. presidents from both parties have launched military operations, including targeted airstrikes like this one. However, the Threat Index score is not anchored to typical U.S. foreign policy, but to historical examples of authoritarianism, and to fascism in particular. Militarism is deeply embedded in American political culture: leaders of both parties routinely praise the military, defend the world's largest defense budget, and assert the U.S.’s role as “policeman of the world.” In many ways, this gives the U.S. a high baseline on any militarism scale. Nonetheless, Trump’s clear break from his past isolationism, at least concerning Iran, warrants an increase in the score.