Weekly Update: 6/17/2025

This has been a busy week, but the Threat to Democracy Index score remains unchanged. Democratic institutions and civic movements remain resilient; however, Trump and the MAGA movement continue to exhibit all of the hallmarks of an authoritarian movement. In this week’s update we review the following events in light of the Threat to Democracy Index’s nine criteria: “No Kings” protests across 2,100+ cities (approximately 4–6 million participants), the Newsom v. Trump court case over federal deployment of California’s National Guard and Marines, the assassination of a Minnesota legislator and her spouse, a military parade in Washington, D.C., and renewed ICE raids in several states. We continue to watch the U.S.’s involvement in Middle East affairs with concern about U.S. involvement and the potential for increasing human suffering across the region, but do not include those issues in this week’s update.

Gaining Power v. Exercising Unfettered Power (Stage 3 vs Stage 4)

The Index uses a five-stage model of democratic decline. Stage 3 is defined by a leader trying to gain more power, while Stage 4 begins when they are able to use that power without effective limits. The large-scale protests this week, especially “No Kings Day,” show that civil society is still resisting authoritarian overreach. This is an important sign that we remain in Stage 3. Also, organizers of the protests point to research by Erica Chenoweth and Maria Stephan, which finds that no government can stay in power when at least 3.5% of the population joins sustained, nonviolent protest. If that theory proves true in the U.S., the growing protest movement may offer a chance to reverse the democratic decline of the last six months and lower the threat index score.

Erosion of Democratic Institutions & Rule of Law

In Newsom v. Trump, a federal trial court ruled that the president cannot deploy the National Guard without a real need and the governor’s approval. The court ordered Trump to give control of the National Guard back to California. However, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, in a decision by a panel that includes two Trump appointees, paused that ruling before it took effect. This pattern—where courts sometimes issue strong rulings, only to immediately reverse or weaken them—shows the courts’ struggle to consistently check executive power. If higher courts agree with Trump that there are no checks or balances on the president’s power to deploy the national guard against citizens, it would be another example of democratic decline.

Leadership Cult & Expectations of Loyalty

The military parade in Washington, D.C., held on Trump’s birthday, included tanks, fighter jets, and tributes that blended government symbols with Trump’s personal brand. These kinds of displays are typical of authoritarian governments, where leaders use national celebrations to build loyalty and inflate their personal image.  Trump further attempted to build his cult of leadership by falsely claiming that he deserves credit for having “stopped L.A. from burning,” when it was local law enforcement who directly quelled the disturbances.

Nationalist Ideology, Mythic “Renewal,” and Hyper-masculinity

The D.C. military parade was a perfect example of a public display of military hardware used to celebrate nationalism and the hyper-masculine value of moral violence. Further, the parade told a carefully crafted story, progressing from Revolutionary War weapons to World War-era arms, and finally to modern military hardware. This created a historical narrative that mythologizes the nation’s past as heroic while erasing the people who suffered as a result of this past. This is typical of the way authoritarian regimes replace history with ultra-nationalist myth.

Propaganda, Media Control & Information Manipulation

The MAGA movement continues to spread false claims through speeches and social media. Trump claimed that his military deployment stopped the riots in Los Angeles, but the evidence shows otherwise. Neither the National Guard nor the Marines took significant action. Confrontations continued after federal troops arrived, and it was local law enforcement that ultimately quelled the unrest involving property destruction or violence. After Minnesota legislator Melissa Hortman and her spouse were assassinated, some MAGA figures falsely claimed the killer was a left-wing activist, despite the majority of the evidence pointing to him being a conservative Trump supporter. This use of disinformation to confuse the public and control the story is a classic tactic of authoritarian movements.

Scapegoating & Persecution of Targeted ‘Out‑Groups’

This week also saw more ICE raids in several states, ordered by Trump despite objections from local leaders. However, his administration has publicly decided not to raid agricultural or hospitality workers because of the potential economic impact of those raids. This economic decision undercuts the Trump administration’s argument that mass deportations are good policy or are required by law. Nonetheless, continuing ICE raids, even while abandoning their justification, is consistent with the authoritarian practice of scapegoating minorities to consolidate majority support.

Paramilitarism & Political Violence

So far, Trump has not returned to the full use of paramilitary violence that marked the end of his first term. The Index score for this measure remains lower than for others. However, the killing of a state legislator, vehicles driven into crowds of protesters, and an armed confrontation at a protest in Salt Lake City raise serious concerns that an escalation of political violence may be on the horizon.

Suppression of Dissent & Political Opposition

Trump continues to label his critics as enemies of the country, calling them “animals” and suggesting they are working with foreign powers. He has threatened to use the military and law enforcement against them. While large-scale suppression of protest hasn’t happened yet, this kind of language lays the groundwork for it.

Conclusion

In short, the threat to democracy continues. This week’s events demonstrate a deepening, but not an escalation, of the MAGA’s movement’s commitment to authoritarian tactics. However, mass protests reassuringly suggest one possible way to reverse democratic decline. Check back here for continuing weekly analysis.