Monthly Update: 11/18/2025

As of this month, the Threat Index score remains the same. We continue to see worrying actions from the Trump administration and the broader MAGA movement, but the overall picture has not shifted. An authoritarian movement controls the federal government, but democratic institutions and political opposition continue. Courts, state governments, civil society, and organized opposition continue to push back. The movement’s attempts to dismantle the opposition seem designed to terrorize immigrants and inspire the MAGA base but not to effectively destroy the opposition.

In the past, we’ve described several possible explanations for this state affairs: that the president and his team recklessly inflame authoritarian instincts without intending to end democracy; that we are experiencing a fascist overthrow of our democracy but it is slow moving or has been stalled by opposition or by incompetence; or that this moment is merely a more dramatic example of the familiar swing between liberal and conservative political moments that takes place every decade or two. In a new blog post, Timothy Snyder, considered by many to be North America’s leading thinker on the subject of contemporary authoritarianism, argues that Trump and Vance are merely exploiting the widespread support for authoritarianism within the Republican party’s base in order to pursue their own selfish personal goals. This interpretation is gaining support among scholars, though it remains only one of several possibilities.

Although the overall score hasn’t changed, we are watching two areas that could affect future updates: events in Venezuela and the administration’s growing focus on Antifa. The Militarism and Foreign Aggression measure was relatively low for most of 2025 because of Trump’s general isolationism, but this changed when he authorized military strikes on Iran. The next major increase would come if the United States launched an invasion aimed at replacing another country’s government with one loyal to Trump. His threats toward Venezuela raise this concern, but it still seems unlikely that he will do more than talk tough and launch occasional, isolated strikes. We will raise the score if we see real steps toward an invasion aimed at regime-change.

Trump continues to make vague and dramatic claims about Antifa. He now says he will designate several European Antifa groups as foreign terrorist organizations. Unlike his mostly meaningless designation of Antifa as a domestic terrorist organization, the designation of foreign terrorist organizations can be used to legally justify seizing assets or targeting political opponents he connects to these organizations. So far, none of this has actually happened, and it is unclear whether such actions would succeed if attempted. We will adjust the score if these statements turn into effective attacks against Trump’s political opposition.

For now, the pattern remains the same: serious danger, but no major movement. The authoritarian project keeps testing limits, yet institutions and opposition forces still hold the line. We will continue to monitor these areas and update the score if events cross the thresholds set out in the Threat Index rubrics.