Weekly Update: 6/10/2025

This week, the Threat to Democracy Index remains unchanged. However, it is unquestionable that the suppression of dissent in the United States is increasing. Protests in Los Angeles, sparked by aggressive immigration enforcement, led to isolated clashes with local police, including reports of fireworks and projectiles thrown by demonstrators as well as violence against protesters by law enforcement. In an unprecedented response, President Trump invoked emergency powers to mobilize both the National Guard and active-duty military personnel, despite California Governor Gavin Newsom’s objections.

According to eyewitnesses and local reports, the protests were ultimately contained by local law enforcement, not federal forces. Nevertheless, President Trump claimed credit for restoring order and described his military deployment as decisive. He also called for the arrest of Governor Newsom. These actions reflect a significant escalation in rhetoric and demonstrate specific ways the Trump administration could attempt to use state power against political opponents.

These events raise concerns across several measures tracked by the Index. They impact Measure 1: The Erosion of Democratic Institutions and the Rule of Law, particularly through Trump’s call to arrest California’s Governor, which represents his most serious rhetorical attack on federalism to date. They also affect Measure 5: Scapegoating and the Persecution of Targeted “Out Groups”, evident in the indiscriminate arrests of undocumented residents. Most notably, they intensify concerns captured by Measure 6: Suppression of Dissent and Political Opposition, which is the focus of this week’s update.

Currently, the Suppression of Dissent measure is scored at a 6. That score is based on the following rubric description:

6: Leader Criminalizes OppositionThe leader and his allies use state power to suppress opposition (e.g., arrests, legal harassment, intimidation), but resistance persists. Courts or public outcry occasionally check the regime; dissent is risky but continues.

The measure was raised to a 6 after Trump used legal harassment and executive orders to target law firms that had opposed him, and after he sought to revoke immigration permits from dissenters. Since then, several actions have further confirmed that score. Trump barred the Associated Press from press briefings, cut funding to NPR, PBS, Columbia, Harvard, and other academic institutions, and pursued criminal charges against Congressperson LaMonica McIver. Most recently, he invoked rarely used emergency powers to mobilize the military against American citizens.

For comparison, a score of 7 is defined as follows:

7: Leader Bans Political OppositionThe regime faces little domestic pushback in silencing or neutralizing opponents. Leading dissidents are smeared, surveilled, or prosecuted into ineffectiveness. Organized resistance barely operates, driven underground and under constant threat.

The primary difference between a score of 6 and a score of 7 is that, at level 7, opposition groups face overt bans, and attempts by the opposition or civil society to protect against political repression fail to make an impact. The result is that members of the public fear being identified as dissenters, which makes public organizing ineffective. Opposition groups begin operating underground.

The events in Los Angeles demonstrate that the United States has not yet reached this threshold. Organized resistance continues to operate and respond publicly.

Even so, Trump’s rhetoric indicates that the United States may be approaching that point. Trump has called for mass arrests of protesters by federal agencies, criminal prosecution of a Democratic governor for his political opposition, and treating immigrant-rights organizers as insurrectionists. If these proposals were enacted, the United States would meet the criteria for a level 7 score on Suppression of Dissent. Avoiding that outcome should be a top priority for anyone committed to reversing democratic backsliding in the United States.