Authoritarianism, Totalitarianism, Fascism, Dictatorship, Autocracy, Kleptocracy, Oligarchy, Broligarchy, ....

Authoritarianism, totalitarianism, fascism, dictatorship, autocracy, kleptocracy, oligarchy, broligarchy, this list goes on. These words are tools used by historians and political scientists to describe governments with careful precision. But, generally, they are used to describe governments of the past; these words were not developed to help describe unfolding political events as they happen. In fact, because the precise details that distinguish these words from each other are still so murky to us as we watch events unfold in real time that they offer the opposite of precision. Instead, they create endless confusion about which word is the right word for now.

Rather than discussing the U.S.'s potential transition to one of these other forms of government, not knowing which it might be, we have framed our index in terms of America's transition away from liberal democracy. Thus our index measures the "threat to democracy" rather than "the threat of authoritarianism." When discussing the opposite of democracy, we try to consistently use the word "authoritarianism" as the most general and encompassing term.

Still, we hope our audience can distinguish between at least the three words: oligarchy, authoritarianism, and fascism.

Oligarchy is the word used by many progressives and democrats such as Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. To them, it means a government where a small group of extremely wealthy individuals hold disproportionate power over the economy, politics, and media, thereby undermining democratic principles. They point to Trump's relationships with Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Mark Zuckerberg as evidence. (Note that the term "broligarchy" is joke based on the frequent description of those billionaires as "tech bros.") An oligarchy is anti-democratic but it does not require the kind of extreme repression one imagines when thinking about Germany under Hitler. For a measure of whether the United States is becoming an oligarchy, we recommend Daniel Kaufmann's research on "state capture," a similar concept.

Authoritarianism refers to a political system where power is concentrated in the hands of a single ruler or ruling elite, often with limited checks and balances. At its extreme, an oligarchy can be a type of authoritarianism. In authoritarian regimes, the government suppresses dissent, limits freedoms, resists democratic accountability, and typically persecutes disfavored minorities—but it often allows people to disengage from politics entirely. As long as citizens are part of the majority, stay quiet, and don’t challenge the system, they are generally left alone.

Fascism goes further. Not all authoritarian governments are fascist, but all fascist governments are authoritarian. Fascist movements don’t just demand obedience—they also demand participation. They create an atmosphere in which neutrality is dangerous, and apathy is treated as betrayal. Fascism thrives on mass mobilization, emotional appeals to national or racial identity, glorification of violence, and a vision of national rebirth through struggle. In fascist regimes, individuals are pressured—or even forced—to actively demonstrate loyalty and enthusiasm for the movement. In a fascist state, everyone must publicly and repeatedly affirm their loyalty to the leader.

So where does that leave the United States?

The U.S. is unquestioningly becoming less tolerant and more centralized. Perhaps what we’re seeing is just a recalibration of American governance or a mild form of oligarchy—troubling, perhaps, but not yet authoritarian. But concerns about more severe forms of authoritarianism, or even fascism, are not unfounded. Trump’s political style raises red flags that go beyond even ordinary authoritarianism:

• A cult of personality that overrides party or principle

• The use of easily disprovable lies and revisionist history

• Mass rallies and emotionally charged propaganda

• An obsessive focus on grievance and vengeance

• Flirtations with paramilitary groups

• Dehumanizing language directed at opponents, immigrants, and marginalized groups

• And even calls to annex neighboring countries

These are not just the tactics of a strongman president—they are hallmarks of fascist politics. That’s why it's important to consider possibilities beyond oligarchy and authoritarianism. Of course, if the political trajectory shifts and we find ourselves in a new kind of regime that doesn't fit traditional models, then a different tool than the Threat to Democracy Index may be required. But for now, the warning signs are close enough to fascism that they demand this index include a Stage Five that describes a fully fascist state.