Is There a Brightline Distinction between Stage 3 and Stage 4?

In law, we talk about "brightline" rules. These are rules that are clear and easy to follow, unlike, for example, balancing tests where different criteria must be weighed against each other. In our Five Stages of Decline, the crucial distinction between Stage 3 and Stage 4 is the distinction between a democracy in peril and fully realized authoritarianism. While that sounds like a brightline rule, as we have approached the dividing line, it appears much less clear than one might expect.

As our rubrics show, the practical difference between Stage 3 and Stage 4 (or between a score of 6 and 7 on the rubrics) is really just a matter of degree. In Stage 3, traditional checks and balances on executive power and protections for individual freedom continue to exist but are failing in some instances. In Stage 4, those failures have reached a point where those protections are ineffective even if they continue to exist in name only. But at what point do we declare that these protections have gone from failing to failed? There is no easy answer. But while we are still in Stage 3 and only approaching Stage 4, it is probably a good time to consider what events might indicate that the United States has entered Stage 4.

1. Erosion of Democratic Institutions & Rule of Law

   • Abolishing free and fair elections in practice — for instance, purging large numbers of Democratic voters from the rolls or refusing to seat duly elected members of Congress on fabricated grounds.

   • Nullifying meaningful judicial review — for example, invoking a sweeping exclusionary clause to block court oversight or curbing the precedential force of Marbury v. Madison.

2. Leadership Cult & Expectations of Loyalty

   • Conducting mass purges of federal employees who are deemed insufficiently loyal to President Trump.

   • Mandating school‑age reverence for Trump — such as inserting his name into the Pledge of Allegiance or declaring a national holiday in his honor while he remains in office.

3. Nationalist Ideology, Mythic “Renewal,” and Hyper-masculinity

   • Imposing laws or executive orders that enforce traditional gender roles in direct conflict with established equal‑protection principles.

   • Eradicating critical theory and minority perspectives from public education.

4. Propaganda, Media Control & Information Manipulation

   • Constraining news outlets through punitive regulation — for example, empowering the FCC to fine stations for “misinformation” even when reporting is accurate, or dismantling New York Times v. Sullivan safeguards against libel suits.

   • Establishing a state‑run media network that broadcasts exclusively pro‑Trump content and commands a substantial national audience.

5. Scapegoating & Persecution of Targeting "Out-Groups"

   • Engaging in mass deportations of immigrants.

   • Criminalizing transgender expression or declining to prosecute violence perpetrated against transgender people.

6. Suppression of Dissent & Political Opposition

   • Imprisoning Democratic leaders and installing Republican replacements.

   • Outlawing participation in civic organizations—including churches or political clubs—that criticize Trump.

7. Paramilitarism & Political Violence

   • Openly encouraging or praising specific acts of political violence committed by right‑wing extremists.

   • Financing or arming violent extremist groups with government resources.

8. Militarism & Foreign Aggression

   • Authorizing the U.S. military to seize foreign territories— for example, the Panama Canal or Greenland.

   • Launching military operations inside Mexico despite explicit objections from the Mexican government.

9. Wealth Centralization & Erosion of Economic Freedom

   • Imposing targeted tariffs to punish industries or firms whose executives oppose Trump or refuse to fund him or his initiatives.

   • Redirecting tax revenues to advance partisan objectives or enrich the President personally.

These are not meant to be all the possible "tripwires" of Stage 4, nor will we have clearly entered Stage 4 as soon as one of them happens. But hopefully this exercise gives us some sense of what we should be vigilant.