Weekly Update: 4/22/2025

The main takeaway this week is that the index is unchanged for a sixth week in a row. The nation has not slid significantly closer to authoritarianism. However, the week's news continues to reinforce the pessimistic view that we are teetering very close to a collapse of our democracy. The most serious threats currently identified by the index are: the erosion of the rule of law; the scapegoating of immigrants, "gang members," and the LGBTQIA+ community; and the suppression of dissent, particularly with regards to supporters of Palestine and DEI proponents.

The United States remains in Stage 3 of democratic decline, a phase in which the country’s institutions maintain a formal appearance of normalcy while power becomes increasingly centralized and long-standing democratic norms erode. This stage is characterized not by the collapse of systems, but by their slow repurposing. Courts still issue rulings, agencies still function, and elections still occur—but the balance of power shifts steadily toward the executive, and the capacity of institutions to serve as meaningful checks on the executive is diminishing.

This week’s headlines, while dramatic in tone, largely reinforce this assessment rather than suggest acceleration into a more advanced stage. New examples of the legal system’s tolerance for executive overreach and Congress’s reluctance to confront major constitutional deviations contribute to a sense that democratic decline is accelerating, but the lack of change to the Index Score suggests these new actions are already "priced into" the index.

The Erosion of Democratic Institutions & Rule of Law is becoming more visible. Executive actions are increasingly used to bypass Congress and reshape the federal workforce, and the president continues to reward loyalty over competence. In the cases involving people detained in prisons in El Salvador, the administration and the courts continue to assert their respective authority while avoiding open conflict. However, the Trump administration has made no effort to return anyone from El Salvador and the courts have not punished anyone in the Trump administration for their contempt of court.

Meanwhile, Scapegoating & Persecution of Targeted Out-Groups continues unabated. Immigration raids and the detention of migrants in prisons in El Salvador are used to signal political dominance and stoke public fear more than as actual enforcement activities. Large-scale legal actions against targeted communities have not materialized, even as the symbolic and rhetorical framing of immigrants, urban residents of color, and political opponents as threats to national unity has grown louder. Furthermore, the administration continues to double down on its argument that due process should be provided only to groups favored by the administration and not to targeted out-groups.

Suppression of Dissent & Political Opposition is taking a more tangible form, especially through attacks on professional institutions. Law firms whose partners have challenged Trump in the past continue to face public threats and retaliatory actions. Universities that maintain inclusive programming are targeted for retaliatory cuts to unrelated federal grants. These efforts are not merely expressive—they are beginning to restrict who is allowed to speak, represent, or organize within the public square, particularly with respect to the war in Gaza and DEI programs.

Finally, the week brought some respite from the previous week's turmoil caused by Trump's economic policies. The currently paused tariffs and ongoing actions by DOGE have resulted in significant power consolidation, aligning with broader patterns of Wealth Centralization & Erosion of Economic Freedom, but there remains no public evidence of personal enrichment or full-scale capture of state institutions by political allies or business interests. The instability, however, is real—and its long-term consequences are becoming more difficult to ignore.

Together, these developments suggest a continued commitment to anti-democratic positions taken by the Trump administration weeks ago, rather than any new or dramatic ruptures. Institutions are being reshaped in ways that weaken their independence and redefine their purpose. Whether this accelerates or stabilizes over the long term is not yet certain.