Weekly Update: 4/29/2025

For the seventh consecutive week, the Threat to Democracy Index remains unchanged. Although the United States has not moved measurably closer to authoritarianism, the nation continues to hover dangerously near the tipping point. The most significant threats identified by the Index persist: (1) erosion of the rule of law; (2) scapegoating of immigrants, alleged "gang members," and the LGBTQIA+ community; and (3) suppression of dissent, particularly against pro-Palestinian advocates and DEI proponents.

The events of the past week reinforce the assessment that the United States remains in Stage 3 of democratic decline. Power continues to centralize; checks and balances are increasingly strained; and marginalized communities and dissenters face growing pressure. However, critically, the Trump administration has neither launched any major new initiatives nor escalated current efforts in ways that would push the nation into Stage 4 authoritarianism.

Much of last week’s political discourse focused on the milestone of the first 100 days of Trump’s second term, alongside a modest decline in his favorability ratings. These developments, combined with the lack of significant new initiatives, suggest that the administration may have completed the initial rollout of its governing agenda. Notably, an analysis of Trump's actions relative to the Project 2025 Mandate for Leadership shows that the remaining portions of the Project 2025 agenda appear to involve structural reforms that are either legally complex or politically costly. All this suggests the White House may now shift focus from rapid policy announcements to the slower work of consolidating its initiatives and building operational capacity.

If this is the case, then we will be carefully watching for areas where American democracy remains most vulnerable:

• The weakening of checks and balances among the federal branches.

• The erosion of independence among civic institutions and state programs reliant on federal funding, such as universities and major law firms.

• Threats to due process and the politicization of prosecutions.

• The continued assault on minority rights, especially the legal protections afforded to undocumented immigrants.

Additionally, we are closely tracking the infrastructure needed to fulfill the administration's promises of mass deportations, including expansions in immigration enforcement personnel, detention capacity, and judicial processing speed.